Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
