Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
